Economic and population growth: A six-nation analysis (2005 - 2022)
Written and accurate as at: Oct 23, 2023 Current Stats & Facts
The intertwined economic and population growth narrative reflects a nation's vitality and adaptive capacity amidst global and domestic challenges. A comparative analysis of six diverse economies - Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany from 2005 to 2022 sheds light on the nuanced dynamics and outlier events that have shaped their growth trajectories.
GDP Growth (2005 - 2022)
The following graph unveils a spectrum of economic performance across the six countries. Australia and New Zealand emerge as the stalwarts of growth with total GDP growth rates of 146.62% and 141.12%, respectively. Their robust economic frameworks and trade relations have seemingly cushioned them against severe economic downturns. On the other end of the spectrum, despite its economic stronghold in Europe, Germany trails with total GDP growth of 123.11%, possibly hinting at a saturation point or the impact of broader macroeconomic challenges.
Source: World Bank
Outliers:
Global Financial Crisis (GFC): Australia’s economic narrative during the GFC is one of resilience. Its positive growth rate in 2008 and a quick recovery in the subsequent years were bolstered by a strong banking sector, effective monetary and fiscal policies, and buoyant trade relations with China.
Pandemic Era: The minimal contraction in 2020 followed by a recovery reflects Australia's relatively effective management of the pandemic and the stimulus measures that propelled economic activity.
Brexit: The United Kingdom faced a significant economic downturn in 2020 with a -11.03% growth rate, the lowest among the countries in the dataset, reflecting the compounding challenges of Brexit and the pandemic, while other nations didn’t face a comparable geopolitical event, hence showing lesser economic contraction or even favourable growth rates in some cases.
Population Growth (2005 - 2022)
The following chart reveals a parallel narrative in population growth, with Australia leading, reflecting its economic prosperity. With the lowest population growth, Germany unveils a demographic challenge, particularly highlighted by the 2011 census correction.
Population growth trends mirror, to some extent, the economic growth narrative. Australia leads in population growth at 130.1%, while Germany lags with a mere 101.9% growth, reflecting perhaps a demographic challenge intertwined with an aging population and lower birth rates. The other countries lie somewhere in between, each with unique demographic dynamics.
Source: World Bank
Outlier:
Germany 2011 Population Dip: Germany's population growth showcased a stark anomaly in 2011 with a dip of -1.9%, possibly reflecting demographic challenges or migration trends, contrasting with the modest growth or stability observed in the surrounding years.
While a positive link between economic and population growth is generally observed, Australia is a notable example. However, the United States and Canada present contrasting cases; despite the U.S. experiencing lower population growth rates, the economic outcomes are similar. This disparity highlights the influence of other key factors, such as industrial efficiency, workforce quality, educational systems, trade policies, and technological progress.
It's important to note some limitations in the available data. The time frame covers only 17 years, making it challenging to conclude long-term trends. The data set is also limited to six countries, which may not provide a comprehensive view. Despite these constraints, the evidence points to a positive relationship between economic and population growth, hinting at potential advantages to growing populations.