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Do downturns lead to down years?

Written and accurate as at: Oct 01, 2021 Current Stats & Facts

Stock market slides over a few days or months may lead investors to anticipate a down year. But a broad Australian market index has had positive returns in 16 of the past 20 calendar years, despite some notable dips in many of those years.

Three interesting facts

  1. The broad Australian market index intra-year declines have ranged from -3% to -45%.
  2. In 16 of the past 20 years, the steepest market declines saw notable recoveries ending with gains for the year overall.
  3. Even in 2020, when the market declined 36% associated with the coronavirus pandemic, Australian stocks ended the year with gains of 2%.

'Australian market' is measured by the S&P/ASX 300 Index (total return). 'Largest Intra-Year Decline' refers to the most significant market decrease from peak to trough during the year. S&P/ASX data reproduced with the permission of S&P Index Services Australia.  (Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors)

Volatility is a normal part of investing. Tumbles may be scary, but they shouldn’t be surprising. A long-term focus can help investors keep perspective.

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